The race for the MVP award is always one of the most interesting sub-plots to any NFL season and this season’s has been as intriguing as ever before 10 weeks into the year.
There is no runaway winner this season and there are still plenty of contenders in the frame as we get into the thick of the second half of the regular season. The market has regularly swung between contenders and the betting on this year’s award has been more volatile than most in recent memory.
As ever, it is the quarterbacks who are making the strongest case, which certainly shouldn’t come as a surprise to anybody. The MVP has gone to a quarterback in every season other than one since 2007, with running back Adrian Peterson claiming the award in 2012 for a stellar year with the Minnesota Vikings.
In that time some of the biggest names of the sport have been voted as the league’s Most Valuable Player including Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Patrick Mahomes. All of them, other than the retired Manning, were heavily involved towards the top of the market at the start of the season, but not all of them remain.
According to Oddschecker, 30.8% of bets placed on the MVP market went in the direction of Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott after he led his team to a 43-3 win over the Atlanta Falcons. Prescott threw for 296 yards on 24/31 pass completion, while also throwing two touchdown passes and rushing over one of his own. His odds of winning MVP have since dropped to +800.
He is also the runaway favourite to be the winner of the Comeback Player of the Year award at -400, having recovered admirably from a compound fracture and dislocation to his right ankle in week 5 of last year against the New York Giants.
The books have enjoyed a happy few weeks in the NFL following a string of surprising results in consecutive weeks but the MVP race has been slightly different so far.
The baton has changed hands a number of times this season and Prescott’s recent performances still haven’t made him the favourite. That title is currently held by the Buffalo Bills’ talisman Josh Allen, who has led his team to a 6-3 record and a perfect 3-0 in division games. The Wyoming alum is currently +250 to win the award, sitting just ahead of Tom Brady at +350.
Brady would level the aforementioned Manning in claiming a fourth MVP if he were to be successful this year, whilst also being the oldest recipient of the MVP in the process.
Matthew Stafford (+800) and Aaron Rodgers (+1000) are still clinging onto the favourites and won’t yet fall away. They both still have enough time to make a late charge with the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers respectively, both of whom look set to make the Playoffs pretty comfortably.
Young bucks Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have all lost momentum over the course of the season and are the best of the bunch when it comes to the outsiders at +1600.
All MVP odds supplied are courtesy of DraftKings.
Full NFL MVP Odds
- Josh Allen +250
- Tom Brady +350
- Matthew Stafford +800
- Dak Prescott +800
- Aaron Rodgers +1000
- Kyler Murray +1600
- Lamar Jackson +1600
- Patrick Mahomes +1600
- Justin Herbert +2000
- Cooper Kupp +2500
- Ryan Tannehill +3500
- Derek Carr +5000
- Joe Burrow +5000