TheAnalyst.com, in collaboration with Stats Perform’s AI team, has presented their “empirical answer” as to who will win the UEFA 2020 European Championships this summer (11 June to 11 July).
Stats Perform has offered its ‘% chance of winning’ for each of Euro 2020’s 24 participating teams by crunching the figures on teams’ previous and current performance against a myriad of criteria impacting the likely outcome of the tournament’s groups and matches.
The Euro Prediction Model of the sports data firm examines betting market odds as well as Stats Performs own team rankings, which are based on both history and recent team performance, as well as the ability of teams’ opponents and the difficulty of the “path to the final.”
England are ranked eighth by Stats Perform’s model, with a 5.2 percent chance of winning the event for the first time in the national team’s history, despite being joint pre-event favourites at 5/1.
In the case of the Three Lions, no team has ever reached the final of the European Championship after playing as many as England has (31 games), and England is one of nine teams with a 1-in-20 probability of winning the tournament.
However, according to Stats Perform, England faces a difficult path to an unexpected final, with Gareth Southgate’s side likely facing experienced winners France, Spain, or Germany in the quarter-finals, and Belgium, Italy, or the Netherlands in the semi-finals.
Tipped as favourite to win
France, the 2018 FIFA World Cup champions, was tipped as the favourite to win the tournament, with a 20.5 percent chance, followed by Belgium (15.7 percent) and Spain (11.3 percent).
Didier Deschamps’ team has a chance to make history, as the Frenchman could become the first person to win the World Cup and European Championship as both a player and a manager, and the team could become only the fourth team in history to win back-to-back World Cups and European Championships.
Nonetheless, Les Bleus have been assigned a 46.8 percent chance of progressing from Group F, dubbed “the group of death,” while reigning champions Portugal have been assigned a 19.4 percent probability of progressing from the group that also contains Hungary. Spain, on the other hand, has a 70 percent chance of winning Group E.
In the remaining groups, the Netherlands has a 65.9 percent chance of winning Group C, England has a 64.6 percent chance of winning Group D, and Belgium has a 63.5 percent chance of winning Group B.
Simulation of tournament
Stats Perform AI said that as part of its tournament analysis, it has simulated the tournament being played over 40,000 times in order to make the best accurate forecast on who will win the Henri Delaunay Trophy.
Stats Perform AI analysis could calm bookmakers’ anxieties ahead of next week’s tournament kickoff, as they report huge bets on England winning the tournament — a result that may set a new industry payout record.
The AI model has assigned England a 95.5 percent chance of reaching the final 16 as the team’s most likely performance outcome if Euro 2020 goes according to plan.