Smarkets said the dynamics of the market are being fundamentally reshaped as US 2020 odds are narrow with just two months to go before US voters hit election polls on Tuesday 3 November.
Tracking market trends, Smarkets outlined that its betting exchange represents much of the US 2020 polls, as challenger Joe Biden saw a comfortable double-digit lead narrow to just 50 percent against the 49 percent chance that President Trump will retain his presidency.
Changing campaign dynamics have seen Biden’s presidential chances decline significantly from a peak of 63 percent (1.58) in mid-July to a lead of 1 percent (2.01) over President Trump, who now holds the momentum of the US 2020 campaign.
Smarkets Head of Political Markets Sarbjit Bakhshi, reflecting on events since July, said: “The deteriorating situation in Kenosha and Portland could be improving Trump’s chances of winning the presidency, with Biden’s lead in our market disappearing over the summer.”
In its update, Smarkets – which recorded $4.6 million wagered on its US 2020 – maintained that Biden still holds a significant lead on its ‘live election forecast’ in which it is projected to win 302 ballots from college electoral.
However, Smarkets noted that Trump is gaining ground on its individual state forecasts as the president is estimated to have swung 10 seats since last week: “If our Electoral College markets also start to move from their current prediction of a Democrat victory, things could be looking bleak for Biden,” Bakhshi added.
Come November 3, Biden will be tasked with winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida’s ‘battleground states’ which Trump won in 2016 by a margin of less than 1 percent.
Highlighting the unique structure of the Electoral College, Smarkets currently holds a 1-in-3 chance that Trump will repeat his performance in 2016 by winning the presidency but losing the popular vote.
“This is despite our aggregation of markets on electoral college votes suggesting a Biden victory at 302 to Trump’s 236,” explained Bakhshi. “Trading activity on our platform implies an 80% probability that the Democrats win the popular vote, meaning that if Trump does prevail in November we could see him repeat what he managed in 2016 and do so without winning the most votes.
“After a very troubling summer, all eyes will be on Biden to show that he can exert the moral leadership needed to heal America if he does win the presidency.”