Paddy Power says the ‘dreaded B-word is back on the agenda of British politics,’ as the bookmaker prices a No Deal Brexit as the most likely outcome of ongoing trade talks between the UK government and its EU counterpart.
A week that began with The Financial Times reporting that PM Boris Johnson plans to override key conditions of the EU withdrawal agreement approved by Parliament sees Paddy Power shortening its Brexit market by 6/4 that the UK will not leave the transitional period without securing a trading arrangement.
The planned u-turn of the Conservative government, that is yet to be officially confirmed, has seen Paddy Power punters rush to back a No Deal result, which Paddy Power reports traded last week at 3/1 and this time last year was priced at 5/1.
The bookmaker maintains a deal result at 1/2 but warns that odds are drifting as PM Johnson has formally stated that his government is ‘not going back’ to EU fishing demands, state aid rules and the securing of Northern Ireland ‘s protocol.
With negotiations at a standstill, Paddy Power points out that it is highly unlikely that the transition period will extend beyond the end of 2020 (1/5 – 83 percent chance) compared to 3/1 that the UK Government will continue trade talks.
Paddy Power spokesperson said: “Brexit, eh, remember that word? We’d all gotten so used to words like ‘furlough’ that we almost forgot it existed.
“As talks ramp up, the odds of a no-deal Brexit now look shorter than ever, with minimal chance of any extension to the transition period either.”
Despite having been in the marking for over four years, Paddy Power has priced 7/1 that there will be a vote to rejoin the EU within the next five years.