NY Gaming Market Expected To Normalise By 2023 According To Spectrum

Spectrum Gaming Group has determined that the gaming market in New York will return to pre-COVID levels in 2023, as the group offers a bumper forecast across the state for combined retail and digital sports wagering.

Sports betting potential

The long-awaited 358-page report, released by the New York State Gaming Commission but authored by a consulting company based in Pennsylvania, reports that the jurisdiction of brick-and-mortar and online sports betting has the potential to produce between $816 million and $1.14 billion.

This calculation is based on the GGR annual per-adult estimate of $50 to $70 across the United States, adjusted in each state for household income and population. For the state of New York, $50 to $70 per adult means $53 to $74.

Proposals to legalise mobile sports betting

As the state weighs up plans to legalise mobile sports betting, the results in the delayed study follow the pivot of Governor Andrew Cuomo on the practice earlier this month through the introduction of legislation as part of the State of the State for 2021 approving mobile sports wagering.

Under the plan, a request for proposals to choose and license a sports operator or network to provide mobile sports wagering in New York will be released by the NYSGC.

This operator or network must have a relationship with one of the existing commercial casinos that have been approved. The Commission would also mandate that mobile wagering applications run by any agency have protections against violence and addiction.

Digital wagering

Spectrum noted: “To quantify the degree to which the presence of digital wagering will impact our retail estimates, we assumed that digital wagering in New York could achieve the same percentage of overall sports wagering GGR observed in New Jersey – roughly 82 per cent. 

“Applying that assumption to our state-wide New York estimates suggests that digital GGR could be $669m to $937m, while retail GGR would be reduced to between $147m and $206m.”

The ‘New York Gaming Market Study Report’ also predicted that at the downstate VLTs and OTB facilities, much of the decrease in retail GGR caused by the addition of digital wagering will be felt.

Revenue stabilisation

Furthermore, Spectrum also suggests that revenue stabilisation with regard to mobile sports betting will take place three to five years after the start of operations.

The study also found that retail and mobile sports wagering can raise about $72m and $104m in tax revenue for the state at a 10 percent tax rate.

Brad Maione Commission spokesperson said: “This report provides a valuable tool for the Commission and policy makers to use as discussions continue on the future of the gaming industry in New York. This report should assist with making sound fiscal decisions.”