The estimated average daily amount of Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first week of July showed a trend of improvement from the average daily figure of the preceding two months, although the number of tourists remains small among the regional travel restrictions linked to Covid-19, says brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd in a note on Monday.
Citing channel checks, the institution estimated that Macau’s GGR was on average about MOP350 million ( US$ 43.8 million) for July 1 through July 5, equal to MOP70 million per day.
Analysts Vitaly Umansky, Tianjiao Yu and Kelsey Zhu wrote: “Month-to-date average daily revenue (ADR) is down 91 percent compared to July 2019 (ADR MOP789 million) and up 193 percent compared to June 2020 (ADR MOP24 million) and up 23 percent compared to May 2020 (ADR MOP57 million).”
Travel restrictions remain “in place which continues to limit visitation and revenue,” they added.
According to official data, Macau ‘s June casino GGR declined by 97.0 percent year-on-year to MOP716 million. The monthly tally puts first half GGR on the Macau market at MOP33.72bn.
“At this stage, we cannot estimate July GGR with any confidence as we have no clarity on the timing of cross-border travel and individual visit scheme (IVS) resumption,” the Bernstein team noted.
There are currently no quarantine restrictions on the majority of mainland Chinese entering Macau, but those wishing to return to the mainland after a visit to Macau are currently subject to a 14-day quarantine period. There are however restrictions on Chinese authorities issuing exit visas to travel to Macau for mainlanders.
People’s movements between Macau and Hong Kong are still still usually subject to a quarantine period of 14 days in either direction. The government of Hong Kong recently announced that it has extended its deadline for those arriving from Macau, mainland China and Taiwan to August 7 for the end of that rule.
Sanford Bernstein said it is currently predicting a 44 percent year-on-year decline in Macau 2020 GGR, ‘followed by a rebound of over 96 percent in 2021.’
The brokerage added: “This forecast is based on our prior estimates around travel resumption,” and was “likely to change depending on the timeliness of the lifting of travel restrictions and visa implementation”.